Sunday, August 14, 2011
Marc Faber: The Long-Term Treasury Market is a Bubble, Buy Gold
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, appeared on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart” with Bloomberg TV anchors Carol Massar and Matt Miller today.
Speaking on the phone from Thailand, Faber said that the markets are very oversold, the Fed is “underestimating the severity of the economic downturn” and that gold is the best investment right now. Excerpts from the interview can be found below, courtesy of Bloomberg Television.
Faber on whether he thinks the Fed did the right thing by keeping rates low:“I think they did the right thing that they didn’t allow QE3. They can watch the reaction of assets, whether they will go lower. I think the market is more likely to move still lower. We are very oversold. We can have a rebound like we did today, maybe we’ll have a rebound next week or so, but in general I think we will test the July lows of last year, the S&P at 1,010. After that, probably we’ll get probably a QE3 announcement.”
On why he thinks the Fed is waiting on QE3:
“I think the Fed is underestimating the severity of the coming economic downturn. Essentially they spent their bullets. It is very difficult to follow through with QE3 right here, because you have gold prices going ballistic, and you have the dollar being very weak, and so there are unintended consequences with implementing QE3 right here.”
On what Faber thinks the Fed should do:
“The best [the Fed] could do for markets would be to collectively resign…I think sometimes the best is to do nothing. I welcome the decision, at least today, that they aren’t doing anything worse than what they have already done.”
On whether it makes sense to provide any kind of stimulus:
“What has QE1 and QE2 done for the labor markets? Nothing at all. It’s done nothing for the housing markets. It’s lifted stocks and it created wider wealth inequality in a sense that people who own assets have done very well, and people that are the lower-income recipients groups, they are hurt by rising energy prices and food prices.”
On what should be done for the U.S. economy:
“From 1981 to 2007, we have an economy that was living beyond its means. As a result of continued debt accumulation, GDP was higher than would otherwise have been the case. Now we have a period of sub-par growth that can last for quite some time now, and like in the case of Japan after 1989, people instead of being encouraged to spend, they should be encouraged to save more, and the U.S. should save more and spend less. And then capital spending will essentially pick up.”
On the manic behavior in markets:
“I personally think the Treasury market, the long-dated, are a bubble and it will be one of the worst investments for the longer term if you buy a 10-year, a 30-year U.S. Treasury so I’m a bit puzzled that Treasuries are now yielding, are essentially near record lows. I would rather sell Treasuries.”
“The stock market peaked out on the 2nd of May on the S&P at 1370. So we’re now around 1010. For many stocks we’re down 20% or so. We’re very oversold. I think a rebound is coming but you can forget about a new high. That is out of the question. Because the technical picture is horrible, horrible. ”
On why investors are continuing to move to Treasuries:
“I’ve been in this business for 40 years and on many occasions, nothing made sense to me….I think the Treasury market is another example of a gigantic bubble. The problem with the Federal Reserve policy of essentially zero interest rates is that they are essentially throwing money at the system, but they don’t control where the money will flow to. It can flow at some point into commodity-related stocks. It can flow into gold, oil, treasuries, but it doesn’t flow evenly into these assets. In my opinion, the Treasury, the long-dated Treasuries are essentially the short of the century thing here.”
On whether gold is a bubble:
“I don’t think it is a bubble, but I think the gold market has exploded to the upside recently and the correction is overdue. But as I have always maintained for the last 12 years, every responsible adult should gradually accumulate gold, because not owning any gold is the trouble with government. I don’t understand. People of Bloomberg, I hardly know anyone who owns any gold physically. All of the Bloomberg employees are intelligent people. They listen to the news every day. They make the news every day. Hardly anyone owns any gold.”
On what you can do with gold:
“I disagree [that you can't do anything with gold.] You give your girlfriend copper rings and I give them gold rings and I keep them longer.”
On how Faber would play the markets right now:
“I think right now the technical picture is so horrible that I would use a rebound as a lightning up opportunity. I think [equities] will move lower. I mean, some say you should move back into emerging economies because the fundamentals of emerging economies are far better than the fundamentals of European countries and the fundamentals of the United States. This is something I will consider.”
“The only thing I have to say, basically the market has sold off in such a rapid way and with so much momentum that I am smelling as if something really wrong happens in the next two or three months, because the market is a discounting mechanism. Like March 2009 the market started to go up and people were baffled why it started to go up. Now it starts to go down, and maybe after three months people will wake up and scratch their heads and say now, we know why it started to go down, because maybe there is geo political problems, maybe the Middle East blows up, maybe the economy is horrible.”
Leuthold: We Could Be Headed for New Recession
Click here for interview video.
Christine Benz: Hi. I am Christine Benz for Morningstar. The market has suffered a steep pullback over the past few weeks. Here to provide some context on the recent market action is Steve Leuthold. He is the founder and chief investment officer at Leuthold Weeden Asset Management. Steve thanks for being here.
Steve Leuthold: I am delighted.
Benz: So, Steve you wrote a commentary that went out to your clients late last week. You talked about why you think the market is currently in a bear market. You think stocks are in a bear market. What are the three big factors that you noted that you believe to be weighing on stocks currently?
Leuthold: Well, I think, and this is kind of in chronological order maybe, but I think the complete failure of the what I call the 'Congressional clowns' to accomplish anything meaningful in addressing the deficit was probably the starting point. And the deal that they came up with, as best as we can determine, shaves maybe $22 billion in cuts over the next year, with no revenue increases, and it didn't even close the loopholes that are there in terms of the tax code which applies to hedge fund managers and carried interest and also applies to the oil companies and to a lot of the subsidies that still exist like the subsidy for ethanol.
Benz: Right.
Leuthold: To me it doesn’t make any sense whatsoever, but it seems to me it was a fault of both sides; the Democrats and the Republicans. And all they are interested in apparently is retaining the good things that they can keep for their folks back home and for the people that contribute to their campaign funds. I mean it's really disgusting. You know, Obama Monday said the U.S. is still an AAA country, but the Congress is a CCC- as far as I can see it, and that's one big problem.
The other one is certainly what we saw a week or so ago in terms of the government estimates on GDP growth that were revised back down for the first quarter, down to 0.3% which is really pretty low. And I think it probably stimulated more thought that we're headed not, I don't think, for a double dip, we're maybe headed for a new recession. It may take another two quarters to see that, but people say, "Well, it can't end that early." I mean, we have expansions that are for 100 months, 110 months, and so on. But this is a different environment that we saw back in the first recession. I mean, we had basically some fiscal responsibility on the part of the politicians. We were still a really dominant growth country at that time, which we no longer are, and it's very possible that the expansion phase would only run maybe 30 months which is about the long-term average for expansion.
So, we're no longer the super nation in the world, and we've got to realize that, especially when you look at our balance sheet.
And then the most recent thing, number three, was the triple whammy or as my friend Bob Farrell calls it, the Perfect Storm. The third thing was what's happening in the eurozone and the real difficulties that are there. Even the dollar looks better than the euro. I mean, you are seeing the dollar up today after the downgrade. You are seeing the yields on 10-year Treasuries that are down because the money is flowing in here because it’s still regarded as a safe place, but that’s only relative to what you have available elsewhere like in terms of the eurozone.
Benz: Right. So, Steve, you didn’t even mention the downgrade of U.S. Treasuries by S&P. It sounds like you think that that’s pretty much a nonevent for the markets?
Leuthold: Oh, well, yeah. I mean you hear a lot of talk about that. Everybody tries to blame it on that, blame it on Standard & Poor's but the fact is, it’s the U.S. Congress that has made the situation difficult. And if I were rating them, I wouldn’t even rate them a AA+. I’d rate them maybe AA-. But what we have failed to do in addressing the deficit is absolutely embarrassing, and with what has gone on in Congress over the last two months, as an American I am embarrassed about what’s happened. And I think a lot of other people are.
Benz: So, you noted Steve in your recent report that you are expecting stocks to have maybe a pretty significant rebound, but you would view that, for your clients, as a selling opportunity because you think there is more pain to come. What’s your thinking there?
Leuthold: I mean, this is a really oversold market, and everyone is negative, whether it’s institutions or individuals or whatever, so if market history is any evidence, we should be pretty close to seeing a rebound here.
And before I'd reduce our equity exposure more, we'd like to see a rebound, and it might retrace about maybe half of the decline. So we'd maybe go up to 1,250, 1,260, or 1,270 on the S&P, which would be some kind of rebound, and we would view that as the selling opportunity because I'm fairly certain that we're headed not for a double dip, but a new recession.
Benz: So you're looking for opportunities to trim equities more, but I guess the big question is what do you think is attractive relative to stocks right now? Where are you finding places to put that cash to work?
Leuthold: The most attractive places are where the internal growth is greatest.
Benz: So developing markets?
Leuthold: You bet, including China. And sure Chinese stocks have gone down with this market. But you should look at the rebound prospects. I think also a number of really good-quality European stocks are due for some kind of a for rebound. They've gone down more than the U.S., and we have a lot of those companies that are global companies, too. So I really don't think that more than maybe 40% or 30% of an equity portfolio should be in U.S. stocks. I think it should be outside the U.S.
Benz: So in some ways, it would be kind of mirroring the extent to which the U.S. takes up a piece of the global market cap, such as maybe thinking about setting the baseline?
Leuthold: Absolutely. I mean, you take IBM, and that's a global company. Or you take Siemens in Germany, and that's a global company. I think these are the ones that are probably the most undervalued, and that along with the pure plays is places like South Korea, maybe in Indonesia, certainly in China, and maybe Taiwan, these are the places I'd rather be in. I'd position myself to be there.
Benz: And the pullback in those markets has made them more attractive to you?
Leuthold: It's actually the growth, the internal growth, in the economies. The U.S. has been a wonderful growth economy since World War II. And at the end of World War II we had all the liquidity in the world; we had all the growth potential. We financed the revival of Europe. We financed the revival of most of Asia or great part of Asia. But the U.S. in this whole growth thing where you had a 100-month and 150-month expansions in the last 20 years, that was kind of the result of what had been built up, and we didn’t have any rivals at that point, other than Russia which was a military rival. But we didn’t have any economic rivals. However, now we do really have economic rivals, and our industrial base is broken down. Also our earnings potential is broken down, and the margins that we see, which are at record levels for U.S. companies, are probably going to come down.
Benz: So, I know, Steve, at various points in time your portfolios have held gold. I'd like your take on that asset class right now; it’s been hitting new high seemingly every day. I am wondering if that’s something that you would find attractive at this point in time.
Leuthold: Well, we still have 5%-6% in gold and silver. But I've been around for 50 years, and when you get too much exuberance anywhere, like we're seeing in gold right now, that doesn’t last forever. And I am reluctant to add at this point, and I have faith that the U.S. is going to--and maybe this crisis is going to do it--it’s going to come back to reality and start reducing the deficit. I think that’s probably the best thing about this correction. It's got to take a shock, it’s got to take a crisis, to get our representatives and senators back to thinking about what’s good for the country rather than what’s good for them.
Benz: Thank you so much for sharing your insights with us today. It’s always great to hear from you, Steve.
Leuthold: All right. Nice to talk to you.
Benz: I am Christine Benz for Morningstar. Thanks for watching.
By Christine Benz| 8-8-2011 6:07 PM
Leuthold Says U.S. Stocks Entered Bear Market, Economy Growing
Steve Leuthold, whose Leuthold Global Fund (GLBLX) beat 92 percent of its rivals in the past year, said political uncertainty has pushed U.S. stocks into a bear market even as the economy may still be growing.
“We are in a bear market,” Minneapolis-based Leuthold said today in an interview with Betty Liu on “In the Loop” on Bloomberg Television. “I am not so sure that it is an economic bear market -- we actually may have a couple more quarters of expansion here.”
Benchmark indexes had their biggest slump since December 2008 yesterday on concern that a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Standard & Poor’s may threaten the economic recovery. The S&P 500 slipped 11 percent in three days, the most since November 2008, and fell to the lowest since September as European leaders struggled to contain the region’s debt crisis. The S&P 500 dropped 18 percent from this year’s high on April 29 through yesterday.
Leuthold said it was “the perfect storm,” in which “confidence went out the window both with institutions and individuals -- and when there is no confidence, there are no buyers.”
The investor said he has 45 percent of his asset-allocation fund holdings in equities and may cut that to 35 percent if the market rallies. The S&P 500 gained 2 percent to 1,141.95 at 1:38 p.m. in New York, the biggest intraday advance since Sept. 1.
“We wish we were at 35 percent, but the market came down too fast and we didn’t have a chance to do that,” he said.
Leuthold, who bet on stocks before the S&P 500 reached a 12-year low in March 2009, estimated that the gauge may fall to 950 to 1,000, about 10 percent to 15 percent below yesterday’s close.
“When you see the market get down to the bottom quartile of historical valuations, at that point we generally would get aggressive and say it has to get better from here,” he said. “That’s a long way away. We got a good rally before then, I’m sure. In fact, maybe this is the beginning of it.”
By Nikolaj Gammeltoft and Betty Liu - Aug 9, 2011 2:01 PM ET
Subscribe to Posts [Atom]